My articles will cover two main prop types during the NFL season. The first is long catch props, which can be read here if you have missed it. Your second reason for clicking this article is touchdowns.
There are many ways to bet on touchdowns on Sundays, one of which is making touchdown prop bets. Because these picks have a plus-money variety, we don’t have to get 50% right to be profitable. The goal is clearly to make money, but some weeks will be better than others.
My betting strategy for touchdowns this season will be as follows:
- .5u on players straight
- .25u on all parlayed
- .5u-.75u on round robins
If you are unfamiliar with round robins, they are multiple wagers in a parlay that combine every outcome in groups of two or three. This is so you can still win if one leg fails.
We’re on the same page with my personal bankroll; use this article how you wish.
These four targets share a common theme in what people are saying about them this summer. It’s possible to look back to last season’s production to a certain extent but the confidence in these picks comes from comments surrounding them prior to the season. I’ll show you.
Brandon Aiyuk (+170 DK)
In the 2013 season, the Chicago Bears allowed the second-highest number of touchdowns to wide receivers. In April, the Bears drafted defensive backs Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker, both of whom will start in Week One for the team.
Although the buzz around Chicago camp has been the play of these rookies and the overall improvement of the secondary, I take that with a grain of salt. I just think the Bears receivers’ relative level of mediocrity.
It will be interesting to see if the Chicago secondary is in better shape than it was in 2021 when the San Francisco 49ers visit.
This Bears vulnerability was exploited by three Niners receivers last season: Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings.
As the section header indicated, I will be going to Aiyuk. Aiyuk and Trey Lance have formed quite a friendship since training together in the offseason, according to an early August report. As reported by Bobby Slowik, Lance has a stronger relationship with Aiyuk than Samuel or George Kittle.
Lance started Week 17 last year, and while Aiyuk did not score a touchdown, he led the team in receptions, hauling in four balls for 94 yards.
In two seasons, Aiyuk has scored 10 touchdowns, and Niners GM John Lynch says the receiver has grown tremendously.
Adam Trautman (+320 DK)
Last year, the Falcons allowed the fourth-most touchdowns to tight ends, and that doesn’t seem to be changing in 2022.
It is always so much better to bet on tight ends to score than on running backs or receivers. Bets on red zone targets tend to be red zone-dependent, and Adam Trautman ranked fourth on the Saints last year.
Last season, Trautman had the most snaps played among the group as co-starting TE with Taysom Hill.
There has been some solid buzz that Trautman is about to have a breakthrough season. Coach Dan Roushar said that the third-year tight end “looks like a different guy” and head coach Dennis Allen praised Trautman’s passing game ability.
This summer, Saints practice notes all state the same thing: Trautman gets open, gets targeted, and catches passes.
New Orleans will start the season with Jameis Winston under center, and while it is a bit dated, a 2017 PFF report broke down how effective and how often Winston looks to his tight ends.
I became interested in Trautman because of the team he plays for, and he became a locked in pick due to the odds and the buzz surrounding New Orleans.
Mecole Hardman (+235 DK)
As a team, the Chiefs will open the season against a Cardinals defense that allowed 27 touchdowns to wide receivers during the 2021 regular season.
In 2022, the Arizona secondary will continue to be generous to receivers, as PFF graded their unit 27th in the league.
KC and Patrick Mahomes are the perfect team to take advantage of this vulnerability. As with our next target, the Chiefs’ receiving room is somewhat unknown, which gives us some strong chances at a touchdown.
There are no longer 23 red zone targets for Tyreek Hill (fifth-most in the NFL, most on the team). It may surprise you to know that Mecole Hardman was right behind Travis Kelce with 15 red zone targets in 2021.
The number of touchdown catches Hardman has caught with Mahomes has gone down each year, but his receptions have gone up.
As recently as a few weeks ago, Mahomes called Hardman a key player on offense this year. It was interesting to hear JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling talk about how great the new additions were, but Hardman was specifically mentioned as taking on the Hill role in the offense.
The familiarity of Mahomes and Hardman, coupled with the soft target in Week 1, makes this an easy pick.
Sammy Watkins (+280 DK)
It’s worth listening to Aaron Rodgers when he speaks. Following the Davante Adams trade, Green Bay now has a plethora of targets at its disposal. Last year, Adams was targeted 27 times in the red zone and finished the year with 169 targets, 123 receptions, and 11 touchdowns.
Sammy Watkins has been added to the Packers’ receiving room. A few days ago, Rodgers told the media that the receiver has been a different player lately. Rodgers has praised Watkins numerous times this summer, and it appears he has earned the MVP quarterback’s trust.
Last season, Minnesota allowed the sixth-most touchdowns to receivers, and similarly to Chicago, have attempted to repair that problem through the draft, selecting safety Lewis Cine and corner Andrew Booth.
Against Minnesota, Rodgers has thrown 13 touchdowns in his last four games. I expect Watkins to find the end zone in his Packers debut thanks to the compliments coming his way.
Closing thoughts
Honestly, I bet on these guys over the weekend. There were better odds than they are now, but I did not have time to devote to this article.
On Draft Kings, I was able to parlay these four players at +19797. The current value of this combination is +14335. You can bet straight, parlay or round robin, so pick your guys and good luck!